Management of future urban space uncertainties on the prevalence of infectious diseases by analyzing the performance of existing realities in the context of scenario planning (Case study: Nurabad, Fars)

Today, security is one of the indicators of the quality of life in the city and plays a crucial role in improving and improving the quality of urban life, living comfortably, and achieving a sustainable city. Knowing about the sense of security of the residents of a community has an influential role in recognizing the challenges and solutions for the development of a community and working to strengthen its infrastructure. Many factors play a role in the formation and emergence of violent behaviors, among the most important of which are defenseless spaces that have various effects on urban spaces and the lives of citizens, which increase crimes and decrease citizens’ sense of security. It has the most impact. Defenseless spaces are dead from the point of view of protection but active and alive from the point of view of anomalous space issues, which become the place of occurrence of all kinds of urban crimes due to neglect, planning, and incorrect and simplistic planning. In this study, the role of defenseless urban spaces in the occurrence of crime has been identified and investigated, emphasizing the 9th district of Tehran.

he research method is based on library, documentary, and field studies and the statistical population of this research is the residents of the 9th district of Tehran municipality. In order to determine the sample size among the residents of the area, using Cochran’s formula, the necessary sample size of 150 people was obtained, which was randomly distributed among the residents of the region. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for the designed questionnaires is 0.896 (higher than 0.7), which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire questions and the internal correlation of the questions to measure the research variables. The results of the data obtained through the software ARC GIS, Expert Choice, Super Decisions, Excel, IDRISI, as well as Analytical Hierarchy (AHP), Analytical Network Model (ANP), TOPSIS, VIKOR, are examined, and the analysis is placed.

The research showed that about 56% of the residents have lived in this place for more than ten years, and it is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability. Industrial and military centers are among the uses that can increase the number of defenseless points during a crisis, so there is an inverse relationship between the number of defenseless points and the distance from these uses. In other words, the greater the distance from these uses, the fewer defenseless points. The criteria of social abnormality, lack of lighting facilities, and pollution have also won the first to third ranks, respectively. Therefore, the effective fields have an effect on creating and strengthening the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. According to the results obtained by examining the Vikor method’s conditions, both Vikor conditions have been violated. Therefore, a set of consensus solutions can be used to rank the options. It is common to base the ranking of options on the Vikor index. Thus, according to the VIKOR index, the neighborhood of Ostad Moin has the best situation among other neighborhoods in Region 9. Moreover, based on the findings of the research, the spatial, social, and psychological quality is directly related to the reality of the defenseless urban space in the 9th district of Tehran. The ranking based on the Vicor index showed that the Ostad Moin neighborhood has the best condition among the other neighborhoods of the 9th district. The social anomaly with a beta of 0.398 has had the highest impact on spatial quality compared to inappropriate uses and lack of recreational space. The regression analysis results show that the spatial, social, and psychological quality at the level of (α<0.01) can predict the defenseless urban space of District 9 of Tehran Municipality. The research results indicate the insecurity and undesirability of the 9th district of Tehran in terms of defenseless spaces, which have several indicators. The absence of a specific plan from related organizations for such spaces brings nothing but the escalation of violence, insecurity, increase in crime rates, and the departure of the native population of the neighborhood.

One of the necessary measures to reduce damage and adaptations is the optimal location of users. If urban uses are placed carefully, many costs created for the city, both in terms of health and in terms of time, will be saved. Urban density and urban infrastructure, including water, electricity, gas, telephone, city communication network, etc., play an essential role in the degree of vulnerability of the city. Flexibility in the form of the city, contiguity, and compatibility of uses with each other, proportional distribution of urban density, including residential density, population density, etc., having an efficient and hierarchical communication network, construction of infrastructure facilities and urban infrastructures in a reliable, resistant and capable manner. Restoration is one of the essential factors of urban development. On the one hand, the expansion of communication networks and urban infrastructures, the lack of observance of the most basic safety points in urban constructions, and the unplanned growth and development of the city have created the conditions for causing much damage in times of crisis. The final results of our study show that region 9 is at an average level in terms of physical vulnerability.