The Effect of Provincial Policies on the COVID-19 Mortality Rate: Risk Analysis Study in Hamadan Province

Governments adopt different policies and strategies to control and reduce the mortality rate of COVID-19. In order to investigate the effect of the adopted policies on the reduction of mortality caused by this disease, the policies implemented by the Regional Headquarter for the Control of COVID-19 Epidemic in Hamedan Province were evaluated.

The required information was obtained from the Vice-Chancellor of Health of Hamadan University of Medical Sciences and the minutes of the meetings of the Headquarter for the Control of COVID-19 Epidemic in Hamadan Governorate. All the information obtained dates to the period from April to August 2021. A Bayesian network model was used in GeNIe software version 2.2 for the analysis of the information.

In this study, seven models were used to evaluate the impact of the adopted strategies. The first model included social distancing, including travel restriction and limiting gatherings, and the mortality rate was estimated to reach 4.72% by implementing the model. The second model includes observing personal hygiene, wearing masks, and vaccination, and the mortality rate was estimated to reach 4.92% by its implementation. The third model encompassed both travel restrictions and business closures, and the mortality rate reached 6.41% after its implementation. Models 4, 5, and 6, which are a combination of the first, second, and third models, have estimated the mortality rate to reach 1.95%, 2.77%, and 2.26%, respectively. In addition, model 7, which combines the above conditions, made the mortality rate reach 2.35%. In the present study, model 6 was selected as the most suitable model with five policies and RMES=0.03005.

According to the results obtained in this study, the simultaneous implementation of five policies, including travel restrictions, business closures, personal hygiene, wearing masks and vaccination, can greatly reduce the risk of mortality.