Performance evaluation of the Canadian forest fire weather index system in the ‎Golestan Province

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of the early warning system of the Canadian Forest Fire weather Index in the Golestan Province. To estimate the weather index of Canadian forest fires, the input variables to the system were four climatic variables including temperature, humidity, wind speed at a height of ten meters, and rainfall for a period of 24 years (1997-2021) during the fire season (April to January) were collected from synoptic and evaporative stations in the province. First, the Canadian forest fire climate index system was calculated daily during the study period at each climate station. Then, the obtained 24-year average of fire risk potential rate for each station was estimated using the conventional kriging interpolation method with high accuracy and a continuous raster map of the fire risk potential of the Golestan province was prepared. Then, the continuous climatic potential of fire risk was zoned into three categories of medium, high risk, and dangerous using the Canadian Climate Index system classification. 1452 occurred fire points in the past years were used to evaluate the performance of the Canadian forest fire weather index system in the Golestan Province. The results showed that 68% of the fire points, which cover 80% of the burned area, are in the high-risk category. Based on obtained results, it could be concluded that the Canadian Forest Fire Climate Indicator Early Warning System can predict fires in susceptible areas in the Golestan Province with higher accuracy.