Evaluation and Creation of Urban Spatial Development Scenario in the Framework of Smart Growth Pattern(Case Study: the City of Rasht)

Smart growth is a comprehensive strategy covering various aspects of urban development, and scenario planning attempts to focus on alternative futures using quantitative and qualitative categories. In this regard, the first and most critical step is to determine the key drivers, based on which the changes can be made to attain the goals. The present study is aimed at identifying the key effective factors for the spatial development of Rasht in the framework of smart urban growth pattern. The research method has a descriptive-analytical nature. The required data and information were gathered using both library and survey research methods, as well as the Delphi method. The interaction effects analysis of variables and MICMAC software were used to analyze the data. The results demonstrated that 55 factors are effective in the future development trend of Rasht based on smart growth, which are classified as three dimensions of use, traffic, and density. More than 62% of the factors affected each other. The dispersion plane of factors effective in the future of spatial development in Rasht based on smart growth indicated instability in the system. The results of matrix analyses and evaluation of effectiveness and susceptibility plan of the factors using direct and indirect methods determined 14 factors with the most substantial roles in the future spatial development of Rasht in the framework of smart growth pattern.