Providing forecasting model of grape berry moth, Lobesia botrana based on temperature-dependent phenology

The grape berry moth, Lobesia botrana Denis & Schiffermüller is the most important insect pest in the vineyards of Iran. In the present study at the same time as recording the hourly environmental temperature, seasonal population fluctuation of the grape berry moth was studied in Qazvin and Kurdistan provinces and accordingly its forecasting model developed based on temperature- dependent phenology. First capture of the male moth by the pheromone traps was considered as biofix. Moth flight peak in the first, second and third generations of the grape berry moth were observed in April-May, June, and August, respectively. Mean Growing Degree Hours for incidence of the 1, 2, and 3 generations were 945-1045, 1014-19866, and 37179-40801 Degree Hours from the date of biofix, respectively. Estimated values of Growing Degree Hours can be used as a forecasting model to determine physiological time of each generation after validating the accuracy of the data.