Determining drivers of the future of book in Iran

Books are the largest cultural arena in Iran and an important part of Iran's cultural future is consequence of the future of books. The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers that affect the future of books in Iran. This future study is based on the Structural Analysis model by Micmac method and in four stages: "Identifying environmental variables using the PESTEL model and the layered approach", "Determining key variables by Delphi experts", "Assessing the cross impact of key variables by the Micmac method" and "Analyzing the general environment of the system and determining the drivers” have been done.The findings of this study show “The degree of government intervention in the book section", "Promoting the culture of reading non-textbooks", "Book quality and their adaptation to the needs and tendencies of the audience", "The role of the ministry of Education Culture of reading books and combating illiteracy, "Public library funding" and "Self-sufficiency in the internal chain of paper production" are the most effective future drivers of books in Iran. Among these six drivers, the extent of government intervention in the field of books has the strongest direct and indirect impact on other drivers. As a result, control of these drivers can be the main cause of inertia or the main cause of the movement in the future of books in Iran.