Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis of Cereal Yield in Iran

Introduction :

Rapid population growth and limited production resources, especially in the agricultural sector, have made the issue of food security one of the challenges in the world. One of the main goals of sustainable development is to end hunger, achieve food security and develop sustainable agriculture. But predictions indicate that this goal will be difficult to achieve. Thus, world hunger is increasing and the lives of many people are directly and indirectly dependent on agriculture.

Purpose of the research: 

one of the basic approaches to agricultural development and food needs is to increase the yield and productivity of agricultural products for this reason, the present study was conducted with the aim of analysis patterns and spatial and temporal changes in cereal yield (wheat and barley) in Iran during a 35-year period from 1983 to 2018.

This study is an applied research and methodologically descriptive-analytical. Data and information were collected in a library method. Gi statistic or hot spot analysis used to discover the spatial pattern of cereal production (wheat and barley) and to identify its focal points. Arc GIS software was used to analyze the data.

Geographical area of research: 

The study area in this study includes the entire political and geographical area of Iran except open waters. In the present study, three levels of national (Iran), provincial (31 provinces) and counties (429 counties) have been analyzed for spatial and temporal changes in cereal yield.

Findings and Discussion During the study period, Isfahan province had the highest decrease in wheat yield and Khorasan Razavi province had the highest increase in wheat yield. In barley, some provinces such as Mazandaran, Fars, Kerman and Bushehr had the highest decrease in yield and Khorasan Razavi province had the highest increase in barley yield.

The results of research at the national and provincial levels show an increase in cereal yield during the study period. Also, spatial analysis at the county level shows the formation of a cluster pattern with a concentrate on high cereal yields in some plain areas of Iran