Effect of Climate Change on Habitat of Bromus tomentellus Boiss in South Zagros Based on Climate Prediction Model

Understanding the environmental factors affecting the establishment of vegetation, can help in the proper management of rangeland ecosystems. Optimal habitat has a beneficial effect on the survival and reproduction of species. With the advancement of statistical science and GIS, it has become possible to predict the habitat of plant species using modeling methods. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a forecast map of B. tomentellus habitats based on the climate forecast model in South Zagros (Fars province). First, using 29 synoptic stations inside and adjacent areas, a database including variables of precipitation, night temperature, daily temperature and average temperature was formed and 19 climatic measures were calculated. Also, using a digital height model with an accuracy of 30 meters, three physiographic variables including slope, direction and height were prepared. Then, using updated maps of ecological zones and field visits, the presence and absence points of B. tomentellus were identified. Using logistic regression, the growth behavior of this species in the South Zagros region was determined and the model map and the corresponding equations were calculated in the current conditions. Using current equations and placement of data extracted from the Worldclime database, the future distribution map of B. tomentellus for 2050 was generated under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed that B. tomentellus species will migrate to higher altitudes of 170 and 260 m, respectively, in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, the area of ​suitable habitat areas, from 26.8% of the area of ​South Zagros rangeland habitats in the current conditions, to 8.5% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 1.7% under the pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5) in 2050 Will be reduced.