Analyzing and Forecasting of Iran Aviation Fleet Number by Using System Dynamics Approach

Today, by advent of major changes in the economic –social environment of world, the air transport industry is also experiencing fundamental changes. This industry in Iran, because of severe international sanctions, increasing demand, need to develop better and more air transport, as well as long-term effects of aircraft manufacturing technology; has its own complexities. One of the planning requirements in any industry is corrected anticipation for future needs of the industry. To predict fleet needed to be considered required things such as economic growth, population growth, state of other means of transport, the existing fleet and how to provide the required Fleet. These combine to form a complex and dynamic system. Therefore, a suitable approach to predict the behavior of these systems is required. In this article, first identify dynamics of the industry and then predict the number of fleet required in air transport for Iran's aviation industry in1404. In other word, by modeling air industry and then validating model, we have discussed about behavior of airline industry's fleet number, under various scenarios. The following represents the output of simulation models: 1) the aviation industry demand is growing due to economic growth, population increases and the bad state of other means of transport; 2) In 1404 the number of aircraft required to per capita 3.4 times be 322 and 5 times is 428 fleets. Although the need for fleet and demand is increasing, but ultimately demand in the long-term is decline because of various reasons including limited Iran's market