Analysis of Spatial Imbalance Factors in the Metropolitan Area of Tehran and Future Scenarios

Spatial imbalance in Tehran's metropolis and the metropolitan area has intensified despite the long history of decentralization policies. Many factors have contributed to this problem, but it is necessary to identify the driving forces to know the future directions. The research seeks to identify the levels and clusters of factors of this spatial imbalance and present future scenarios based on driving forces. Experts' opinions were obtained about the factor relationships that were known in the subject literature. These factors were categorized by MICMAC software and Interpretive Structural Modelling. Also by Scenario wizard software and Cross-impact balance analysis, driving forces were analyzed and logical scenarios were presented. Based on the findings, the government establishment factor is the most fundamental level. The population settlement pattern factor is the uppermost level. The population settlement pattern and physical growth are the most important variables in the dependent cluster. Industrial concentration, urban management, capital concentration, and population concentration are the most important variables in the Linkage cluster. Government establishment, decision-making centralization, service centralization, infrastructure centralization, economy centralization, extra-urban activities, and urban plans are the most important variables in the effective cluster. Among the ten logical scenarios, the top four scenarios were considered. Even if the best scenario occurs, it is still very far from ideal conditions. But if unfavorable scenarios occur, the conditions will be very close to the maximum possible crisis. The spatial imbalance in Tehran's metropolis and the metropolitan area is going to become more critical in the future.