Prediction of Firm's Life cycle and Financial Performance Appraisal using Decision trees Algorithm and Multi-criteria Decision-making Techniques

Optimal selection of a company for investment considering its financial ratios is a challenge that is expected to be somewhat simplified by reducing the amount of data. Accurately recognizing the relative importance of metrics in any company is not easy for many decision-makers and investors. The purpose of this study is to provide methods for decision-making that can be implemented without specialized financial knowledge. For this purpose, a sample of 172 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange as a company-year, during the period 2008-2019 was examined. First, the financial ratios were prioritized using decision tree regression analysis (type CART) to predict the life cycle. The results showed that the cash ratio and Debt to Equity Ratio were the most and the least important factors, respectively. Then, using fuzzy hierarchical analysis (FAHP) and TOPSIS, financial ratios were prioritized to evaluate the Financial Performance of companies that leverage ratios and profitability ratios had the highest and lowest ranks, respectively.