Perspective on the timing occurrence of early fall and late spring frosts affecting agriculture on climate change (Case Study: Ardabil Plain)

Late spring frosts and early autumn are a detrimental climate phenomenon that affects the economy, agriculture especially crop production and it is certain this phenomenon will change with climate change and global warming, therefore, it is important to study the timing of their occurrence and predict their future changes. The purpose of this study evaluates changes in frost start and end data using the general circulation of the atmosphere model data (HadGEM2-ES) based on the latest Climate Change Report (Fifth Report) as RCP Scenario using LARSWG model under two scenarios RCP85 and RCP45. For this purpose, 20-year daily data (1981-2010) including minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and solarization were entered into the model and minimum daily temperature data were predicted for the next 20 years (2021-2040). First and last frost data were extracted at three slight, moderate, and severe temperature thresholds. The results showed that in all three temperature thresholds and under both scenarios the mean minimum temperature would increase in all months and the duration of the frost would decrease and the date of occurrence of the first autumn frost and the last spring frost would be earlier than the ground state.