Assessing and analyzing the risk of economic and social vulnerability of rural settlements to earthquakes using Topsis technique (Case study: villages in the central part of Ardabil)

The area of Iran has always been at risk of earthquakes due to its location on the earthquake belt. The formation of large faults and the existence of active stress fields have made Iran prone to earthquakes. Among the dangerous phenomena, devastating earthquakes have been responsible for the highest number of human casualties and financial losses. The present study, according to the nature of the issue and the subject under study in terms of applied purpose and descriptive-analytical type and its purpose is to assess and analyze the vulnerability of rural settlements in the central part of Ardabil to earthquakes. Ardabil city has a population of 28272 people and 8151 families. The sample size was estimated to be 356 based on Cochran's formula. The distribution of the number of samples in the villages is proportional to the number of available households and the method of sample selection in each village has been done systematically randomly. To assess the vulnerability of the studied villages, two indicators and 14 indicators based on the studies of other researchers were used. The face validity of the questionnaire was evaluated by experts and its total reliability was estimated 0.87 based on Cronbach's alpha. The results of this study in the city showed that in terms of seismic vulnerability using the Topsis model, more than 73 Percentage of villages with high and very high risk of economic and social vulnerability to earthquake risk. Calculation of the overall vulnerability of villages in the study area shows that 41% of villages are moderately vulnerable and 59% are high and very high vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessment of rural settlements in the study area indicates high and very high vulnerability in the villages of the study area and this is a serious threat to increase the risk in the area.