The optimal cycle of preventing surprises in the management of security crises

Since today the scope of the concept of security in the environment has taken root and there is no coherent practical method for the preventive management of possible future threats and the lack of explanation of the optimal cycle of preventing surprises in the management of security crises; It can face serious challenges to the infrastructure of the desired development of security; Therefore, in this research, which was conducted with the aim of providing an optimal cycle, the researcher aims to achieve this goal, to obtain the dimensions, components and indicators of the optimal cycle of preventing surprises in the management of security crises.

This research is "applied" in terms of purpose and "combined" in terms of implementation method; In this regard, according to the theoretical foundations of the research and the method used, in the qualitative method of research, using available targeted sampling and conducting in-depth interviews with experts and experts in this field (9 people), the number of 128 categories related to the subject of discovery and According to the factor load analysis test, the impact intensity of each index was calculated.

After refining and removing irrelevant or less influential indicators, the number was adjusted to 83 indicators. In the next step, the indicators were compared in terms of similarities and differences, and then the indicators that were located around a common axis and could be parts of a component. , organization and discovered components were categorized in "behavioral, structural and contextual" dimensions; The result is that: a) the indicators related to the behavioral dimension, in the optimal cycle of preventing surprises in the management of security crises, have a high position among the mentioned dimensions, so that 46% of the categories extracted from the interviews with experts, related to this It was later; b) The gap between "existing" and "desired" status in the dimension of "structural factors" is more than other dimensions, in addition, the necessary suggestions have been presented at the end of the project in accordance with the measurement of the sample size.