Modeling and Simulation of the Stability of Pension Funds Based on Salary Risks and Capital Rate of Returns Using System Dynamics Approach (Social Security Organization Case Study)

In the last century various countries around the world, including Iran, have encountered change in pension systems through the creation of pensionfunds to provide and manage pension assets, as well as the payment of pension benefits through these assets The performance of pension funds and it’s financial condition affect on future of million people. Since pension funds are the main players in the political, social and economic spheres of the country, the crisis related to these funds and the lack of appropriate strategies to manage this crisis, the stability of the economic, social and political spheres. It poses serious dangers to the country other hand, risks such as salary rates, master rates, as well as the rate ofreturn on investments of social security funds can be of special interest to industry managers. In this study, first, the factors affecting the balance of pension funds have been identified. Then, the systems dynamics method is used to model, simulate and finally evaluate the financial balance of pension funds. The simulation was performed in Vansim software in a time horizon of 70 years.The resource of pension funds simulation results show that there would be crisis in the pension funds, if managers accept the current situation of the system. Meanwhile, the evaluation of different scenarios at the end of the simulation has shown that increasing the rate of return and wage rate has the most positive effect and increasing the rate of higher paid pensions has a negative effect on stability of the fund.