Assessing the extent of urban vulnerability to managing natural disasters(earthquakes), Case Study: Region 12 of Tehran

The research was carried out with the aim of evaluating the degree of urban vulnerability in order to manage natural crises with an emphasis on earthquakes in the 12th district of Tehran, in order to minimize the financial and life losses of citizens by providing a comprehensive and strategic plan in the event of an earthquake crisis. The current research is descriptive analytical in terms of its applied purpose and in terms of its nature and research method. Paying attention to the specialization of the goals of the project as well as the data available in this research for better analysis in the field of crisis management, the investigated sample includes 35 elites and experts from organizations related to crisis management in the 12th region. In line with the analysis in this research, in the physical vulnerability review section, after determining the physical vulnerability evaluation criteria, in order to determine the weight of each criterion to put the layers together in Arc GIS, AHP hierarchical analysis method (Expert choice software) has been used. In the analysis section, a questionnaire (with Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.712 and adequate reliability) was examined to check the average and standard deviation of the questionnaire items, and Friedman's test was used to prioritize and rank the dependent variables. The results indicate that Mokhtari Takhti neighborhood is in the best situation in terms of vulnerability and Dardar Cascade neighborhood is in the worst situation in terms of vulnerability. In addition, based on the assessment of physical vulnerability caused by the earthquake, 36% of the region has high and very high vulnerability. In addition, the result of the Friedman test in order to prioritize indicators for crisis management showed that the variable of post-crisis management is in the most unfavorable situation among all the variables, and it was considered as the first priority in presenting strategies and policies.