Modeling the cover change forest of Fandoqlu using CA Markov chain GEOMOD model

 Monitoring and investigation of land use changes in forest areas provides acceptable information for efficient management of these resources. Also, taking care protecting natural resources requires awareness of the conditions and how to change different land uses. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to evaluate the change of forest use in the forest area of ​​ Fandoqlu from 2010 to 2019 by using Landsat 5, 8 images and integrating them with Sentinel 2, Ester images. After preparing images from the years 2010, 2015 and 2019, geometrical, radiometric and atmospheric corrections of the images were done and the classification accuracy using kappa accuracy was% 93, %83, 91% respectively. The land use of Fandoqlu forest area was To model the change of use for 2025 with the Geomod model, it is necessary to prepare a suitability map of the area, which is prepared using the Fuzzy ANP method and the incompatibility coefficient is less than 0.06. In order to prepare a suitability map of four general factors: human, biological, topographic and climatic, and 12 sub-criteria were obtained with Boolean functions, and Boolean land use maps (forest and non-forest) 2010 and 2015 were modeled for 2019 and for modeling Land use for 2025 was done from the base map of 2019 and the transition matrix of Markov chain of land use in 2025 with the CA-Markov model And the result of location changes for 2025 was obtained. To evaluate the accuracy of the model, the agreement and non-agreement of pixels with Klocation and Standard were done with 98 and 95 accuracy, respectively. Modeling results for the year 2025 changes in a decreasing manner; The increase of non-utilized covers and the reduction of forest use, which will decrease from 3204.18 hectares in 2010 to 3070.55 hectares in 2019; According to the results of the human criterion and the sub-criteria of land use and distance from the road, the tourism potential of this area and the attraction of tourists as well as the interference of local residents can have a direct effect on this forest reduction process.

 organizations, people and local, is the only way to protect the forests of this region. In this study, remote sensing data such as satellite images of Landsat8,5, ASTER and Sentinel 2A were used to prepare the baseline map. Climatic data of all parameters up to 1396 were received from the synoptic station of Ardabil province. The digital model of 12.5 altitude was prepared from NASA website to prepare slope maps, slope direction, border layer of the study area and vegetation layer from Ardabil Natural Resources Organization. The research used Arc GIS, ENVI 5.3, TerrSet, eCognition 9 Google Earth pro and SUPER DECITION software. then based on the value and purpose of Reclassify and layer fuzzy. to predict the future conditions of forest cover changes by GEOMOD method, a time map of the start of the modeling process and a map of change appropriateness are needed. Geomod is used to model spatial patterns, forecast and probability of change. GEOMOD is used to simulate patterns of spatial change of use or change between two categories of use (forest and non-forest).

 In order to implement the GEOMOD model, a fit map prepared from the study area is required. Fuzzy ANP method was used to prepare the appropriateness map of the study area, which has four criteria: human (distance from the road, distance from the village, population), topography (slope, direction, height) and biological (land use, lithology, soil), criteria. And the following criteria are used in the map. Climatic parameter (average annual rainfall, temperature, altitude, slope, direction of slope, waterway) was used. 2025 user is required, so using 2015 and 2019 user with CA Markov model for 2025 was modeled. Decreased accuracy was associated. The results of predicting forest spatial changes for 2025 were used from the 2019 Boolean user map and the CA Markov modeled user map. Conclusion To implement the GEOMOD model, we need a fit map for spatial modeling of changes. In this study, four criteria and 12 sub-criteria discussed in Chapters 3 and 4 were used to prepare a fit map of the region. They have acquired Super Decision software.

Using the Boolean forest and non-forest boards and the 2015 and 2019 land use maps with the CA Markov model for 2025, it was modeled. Human, climate and biological have weights of 0.358, 0.258, 0.203 and 0.165, respectively, which the topography achieved the highest weight in Super Decision software. Among the sub-criteria, the type of land use has a high impact on changes in the region. The final output of the fit map was prepared by applying the OR function after applying the weights, which had a better result than the other functions. Finally, using the 2015 and 2025 user maps for 2025, forest spatial changes were made. To evaluate the accuracy of the model, the agreement and non-agreement of spatial pixels were used, which was modeled with Kappa 98% for 2019. The results of spatial change modeling show the high accuracy of the model in predicting spatial changes. GEOMOD results for 2025 will reach 3085 thousand hectares from 3151.9 hectares. Research conducted in different places. the country indicates a decline in forest areas in the coming decades.