Analysis of Key Drivers of the Impact of Competitiveness Components on the Formation of Knowledge-Based Economy with a Futures Study Approach (Case Study of Kerman City)

In an age that we consider the age of knowledge and the economy to be a knowledge-based economy and competition to be global, we are witnessing intense competition between countries at the international level and cities at the national level. The flow of competition has a dynamic nature that for success in the future, we must use new and transformative competitive methods, which is a reason for the progress and development of cities based on knowledge. According to the components of competitiveness, to be able to understand the concept of competitiveness correctly, we must measure the performance of the macro economy and the standard of living of the society based on the productivity of the production factors. According to the research obtained, a competitive economy is where people enjoy a high level of living and employment standards and knowledge and innovation are among the driving forces in the growth and development of cities. Therefore, in this research, we try to analyze the key factors and the main driving forces affecting the formation of the knowledge-based economy of Kerman city and then its main elements and factors by designing possible scenarios in the future, the path of the region's economic progress will be presented with a future research approach. Therefore, the main question of the research is: What will be the key drivers of the impact of competitiveness components on the formation of the knowledge-based economy of Kerman in the future (10-year horizon 2031)?

In the current study, the research method is applied, and from the perspective of the nature of the work, a combination of descriptive-analytical and econometric methods was used in matching the data and in explaining the structure as a future research approach. In this way, the most important factors affecting the formation of a knowledge-based economy in Kerman city have been investigated. Information was collected by document method (library resources, scientific journals) and field method (using a questionnaire tool). In this research, the statistical population of 23 experts consisted of city managers (mayors, deputy mayors, heads of organizations, and managers of urban areas), members of the city's Islamic Council, civil engineering experts in the governorate and urban affairs office and the governorate councils of Kerman, Sciences and Technology Park of Kerman, Administrator of Industry, Mining and Trade of Kerman, Faculty member of Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, and other universities of this city, together with professors of Shahid Beheshti University and specialists of the urban area.In the current research, structured interviews with several experts in the fields of the knowledge-based economy and urban competitiveness were carried out using the Delphi method to identify the key factors and then by combining the factors obtained from the interviews and the studied documents in the background,  the validity and reliability of the variables by experts were confirmed. Finally, the factors were evaluated in the form of a prospective research questionnaire.

The most important factors affecting the promotion of competitiveness components in the knowledge-based economy of Kerman city were identified by using field and library studies. Furthermore, the degree of influence or effectiveness of the identified factors was determined using quantitative future research methods and the use of Micmac software. Therefore, the findings of the research show that among the 29 key factors of the impact of competitiveness components on the urban knowledge-based economy, after examining the indicators and extracting the key influencing factors (direct and indirect), seven key drivers are "transparency and coherence in the ruling economic policies, laws and regulations", "Creating employment and creating new fields of activity for efficient and expert workforce", "training human resources to provide the necessary human capital for a knowledge-based economy", "Clarifying the economy", and "making it healthy and preventing actions", "Corrupt activities and fields in the monetary, commercial, currency", "Increasing people's use of domestic goods and creating a competitive advantage in price for exporting products in global markets", "Empowering the workforce and increasing the share of human capital through promoting education, skills", "creativity and entrepreneurship with a focus on growth Productivity and competitiveness in the economy" and "Development and strengthening of creativity in society (reliance of development on creativity in society)" have had the most significant impact on the promotion of competitive components in the urban knowledge-based economy in Kerman city.

In a summary of past research, it can be mentioned that competitiveness is a key term in the process of economic activities. To have a dynamic and efficient city, we must pay attention to all the components of competitiveness in line with the urban knowledge-based economy and apply them. Since Iran is far from the conditions of a knowledge-based economy at the international level, arrangements should be made in various fields such as innovation and creativity, investing in human capital, acquiring technology and strengthening and equipping infrastructure, setting up business environments and employment and entrepreneurship at the national level and in urban areas to provide access to knowledge and create a suitable environment by using communication and information tools in economic activities and investment in the competitive environment of the city. Now, with the rapid changes in cities based on the rapid growth of science, knowledge, and technology, according to the new phenomenon of globalization, we are witnessing intense competition between the cities of the world. The main driver of the economic growth and development of the city is the production, distribution, and application of knowledge in all the city’s economic activities. Looking to the future in this research, we aim to make a suitable model for the progress and development of the city based on the components of competitiveness and in line with the knowledge-based economy to move the cities towards progress in a competitive world.