Demographic, Economic and Social Correlates of Divorce in Iran: A Multi-level Analysis

One of the most important aspects of global family changes in modern times is the increasing divorce rates. Divorce has various determinants at both the micro and macro levels. This study aims to examine how demographic, economic, and social factors affect marital status (i.e. married versus divorced) in Iran, and to estimate the probability of divorce at the individual and provincial levels using multilevel models. 

Methods and Data:

 Census data from 1976 to 2016, Labor Force Survey, Household Income and Expenditure Survey, Time Use Survey, and Civil Registration data were used for the analysis. For individual-level analysis, 25,163 women and 18,633 men were selected using systematic random sampling from the 2% file of the 2016 Census. At provincial-level, analysis was conducted for 31 provinces in the country were included.

The findings show that age, illiteracy, inactiveness and living in a residential unit of other types increase the probability of divorce for men; however, being the head of household and having a higher education decrease divorce for men. Moreover, residing in a city, illiteracy, education and having children increase the probability of divorce for women. At the provincial level, the sex ratio increases the probability of divorce for men and the ratio of urbanization increases the probability of divorce for women. 

The results suggest that micro and macro level variables have a combined effect on divorce outcomes. Although most of the studies on divorce are done at the individual level, more attention should be paid to the influence of people's living environment on their decision to divorce.

Key Message:

 Most of the studies in the field of divorce are done at the individual level. Few of them have been investigated only at the level of macro-provincial variables. In this study, we showed that in order to better understand the factors of divorce, individual factors and the macro variables should be studied together.