Analysis of key drivers affecting the development of informal settlement with a futures research approach, a case study of informal settlements in Tabriz metropolis

One of the most important challenges facing urban management is informal housing. This phenomenon is one of the adverse consequences of urbanization in the contemporary world, which is especially formed as a result of rapid industrialization and regional inequalities, and due to the deprivation and lack of informal settlements in urban living facilities compared to other Urban areas have made them the focus of acute urban issues and problems and against sustainable human development. The current situation of informal settlements shows that the plans, forecasts and measures taken to address the problems of this phenomenon, especially in the metropolis of Tabriz, have not been so effective that the expansion of informal settlements in this city is a reason for this claim. For this purpose, in this study, an attempt has been made to systematically identify and analyze the key drivers affecting the formation and expansion of informal settlements in the Tabriz metropolis. The research method in the present study is mixed (quantitative-qualitative) with analytical-exploratory nature. The intersection of the components is formed. In the next step, the matrix is analyzed using Micmac software. The results of the dispersion of variables in the axis of influence and the influence of factors in Mikmak software indicate the instability of the system in the study area and accordingly, five categories of variables were identified. Finally, due to the high score of direct and indirect influence of factors, eighteen main factors were identified as key drivers in the formation and expansion of informal settlement in the region. Among the studied drivers, the variables of the economic sector had the greatest impact on the formation and expansion of informal settlement in the study area.