The Effect of Energy Carrier Shocks on Agricultural Products

Given the importance of important economic variables, examining the relationship between these variables and their interaction with each other is one of the research priorities of economists and economic policy makers.
In this study, using the vector auto regression method (VAR) in which all variables are endogenous and do not emphasize any specific economic theory, we examine the relationship between economic variables such as gasoline, diesel, bread, rice and exchange rate.
According to the results obtained from the study of Response functions and Variance Decomposition, the variables are affected by gasoline and diesel and since these goods are essential and basic goods consumed by society and also part of diesel And the gasoline needed by the society is supplied through imports and because the import prices are affected by the exchange rate.
It is proposed to reduce the import of petroleum products, increase the supply of petroleum products through the construction of new refineries, production capacity to reduce the impact of shocks on petroleum products and consequently reduce price fluctuations in consumer goods.