Foresight in the Field of Horse Industry and Equestrian Sports with a Scenario Writing Approach

One of the new methods of future architecture is scenario-based planning, so the purpose of the current research is to predict the future in the field of horse industry and equestrian sports.

A mixed research method that was implemented qualitatively and quantitatively. In the qualitative phase, trends were identified through semi-structured interviews. At this stage, the statistical sample included 26 experts and experts in the field of horse industry and equestrian field were selected by snowball method. The quantitative part of the research was purposeful.  The research tool in the quantitative stage was the researcher's questionnaire made from the Delphi stage, which was used to identify the selected scenarios by identifying the effective macro trends in the cross-effects analysis stage to identify the uncertainties and balance the mutual effects.

According to 16 major research trends, 5 factors (development of horse tourism, amount of media coverage, growth of GDP, facilitation in the process of law enforcement and the entry of the private sector) are the key influencing and influencing factors. Finally, three strong scenarios of Iranian horse in the context of history, horse jumping and thoroughbred horses in the next 10 years of the horse and equestrian industry were determined.

The equestrian is under the scope of strategic planning, recognition of uncertainty, proper foresight in the field of horse and equestrian industry. Therefore, a single and integrated management between organizations such as the Ministry of Sports and Youth, the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad and the Equestrian Federation seems necessary.