Analysis of spatial-physical development on the sustainable future of Tehran 22nd district

Spatial and physical developments are one of the most important issues in metropolises for stability and instability in various spatial sectors - physical, economic, socio-cultural, environmental, managerial - governance. Physical evolution is actually the area that develops, and spatial evolution is actually the per capita space that lies within it. This study seeks to analyze the sustainable future situation of the 22nd metropolitan area of ​​Tehran by analyzing spatial-physical developments using a scenario approach. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. The information required for this research has been collected through field and documentary studies. In field studies, the Delphi technique has been used in the form of a group of 35 people. For data analysis, the interaction analysis method was used in MICMAC software. The results indicate that first 100 factors were identified as key factors in five dimensions of spatial-physical, economic, socio-cultural, environmental, managerial-governance effective for the sustainable future of the region. Then, with the opinion of experts, 44 key drivers were identified. The status of the variables indicates the instability of spatial-physical changes in the 22nd metropolitan area of ​​Tehran. Also, five groups of influential, influential, two-dimensional, regulatory and independent factors were identified. Final scores and rankings of key factors were performed and finally three scenarios for the sustainable future of District 22 of Tehran metropolis were presented.