Assessment and zoning of hazards related to likely eruption of Sabalan volcano

Sabalan is one of dormant stratovolcanoes of Iran with likely eruption, because there are many thermal springs around it. It has a slightly- eroded cone and, geologically, a short time has passed from its last eruption. According to eruption regime of such volcanoes, as well as its former activities, Sabalan volcanic eruptions may happen along with such hazards as tephra, lava, pyroclastic flows and lahars. Its eruption intensity on VEI scale is anticipated to be 3 to 5. Whenever this volcano shows awakening evidence, it would be necessary to take appropriate actions according to hazard zoning maps which are the subject of this study. That is, these maps are necessary for taking emergency actions. In this study, digital elevation data (DEM); satellite pictures; Arc GIS, ENVI and VORIS softwares; as well as atmospheric data of NCEP/NCAR center were used. For construction of pyroclastic density current spreads, the Malin and Sheridan (1982) model was employed. For preparation of lava flow hazard map, simulation model was used, and for preparation of lahar hazard zones, major valleys on the cone and its surroundings were identified and buffered using DEM and satellite data. According to this study, volcanic ashes will move eastward and threat Ardabil city and several nearby villages. Lahars would threaten many surrounding land uses and probably Meshkinshahr and Ardabil cities. Lava flows would damage many mountaineering shelters and ski facilities of Alvares. Additionally, Meshkinshahr, Moil, ski resorts as well as many shelters are at the threat of nuee ardentes.