Development scenarios of Tehran metropolis with a policy approach

Urban development policy is an important issue in the field of urban development and planning. This issue refers to solving how to create prosperous cities and communities, improve the quality of life of citizens and meet current and future needs. In this regard, the present research has been carried out in order to compile the prosperity scenarios of Tehran metropolis based on the principles of future studies. This research is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method and based on future research approach. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 49 primary drivers in 6 statistical categories and identified by structural interaction analysis and scenario writing methods have been processed in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The results of this research show that the golden scenario or high prosperity of Tehran metropolis will happen when the quality of life factors face a growing trend and the status of social cohesion and equality factors are in line with the prosperity of Tehran metropolis. In fact, in these scenarios, the key factors are more favorable than critical. This group of scenarios includes only the first scenario among the 21 believable scenarios, and with 100% favorability, it prevails over other conditions (static and critical) that show a positive and hopeful state in front of the urban prosperity of Tehran metropolis.