Determining the Most Susceptible Areas of Flood Occurrence Using MaxEnt Model in Marzdaran Watershed, Tehran Province

The objective of the current study was to zone flood probability in the Marzdaran watershed. Since the allocated budget for management work is limited and it is not possible to carry out operations in the whole area, having a map that has prioritized different areas in terms of the probability of flood occurrence will be very useful and necessary. A well-known data mining model namely MaxEnt (ME) is applied due to its robust computational algorithm. Flood inventories are gathered through several field surveys using local information and available organizational resources, and the corresponding map is created in the geographic information system. The twelve predisposing variables are selected and the corresponding maps are generated in the geographic information system by reviewing several studies. The area under the curve (ROC) is used to evaluate the modeling results. Then, the most prone areas of flood occurrence which are prioritized for management operations are identified based on the prepared map. Based on the results, about 100 km2 of the study area is identified as the most prone area for management operations. The results showed that the accuracy of the maximum entropy model is 98% in the training phase and 95% in the validation phase. The distance from the river, drainage density, and topographic wetness index are identified as the most effective factors in the occurrence of floods, respectively.