Exploring the Effect of Climatic Variables of Temperature and Rainfall on the Economy of Citrus Production in Mazandaran Province with the Approach of Rural Employment Development

Providing persistent employment in the agricultural sector is one of the most significant economic and social challenges. Regarding the high dependence of the agricultural sector on weather conditions, investigating the effect of climate change on the economy of this sector and the development of rural employment is of particular importance. In this regard, this research was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of climate change on the economy of citrus production in Mazandaran province using the Ricardian approach.

The climatic variables studied in this research included the temperature and rainfall data of Mazandaran province from 2000 to 2017, and these data were received from Iran Meteorological Organization. The studied areas were seven synoptic stations, including Amol, Babolsar, Qarakhil, Nowshehr, Ramsar, Sari, and Siyabisheh. The two products of orange and tangerine with the largest cultivated area were considered as the most important citrus products. Climatic variables of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and monthly rainfall were downscaled for the basic period (2000 to 2017), 2020, and 2080 under three scenarios of optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5).

In orange production, compared to the average net income in the basic period, changes in temperature and annual rainfall under the three scenarios will increase net income by 13.4, 14.5 and 25.2% as well as 14.3, 27.8 and 29.1% in 2050 and 2080, respectively. In tangerine production, the net income under the investigated scenarios will incline by 5.2, 6.7, and 17.7% as well as 6.2, 15.0, and 29.2% in 2050 and 2080, respectively.

In conclusion, the results obtained from examining the effect of climate change in 2050 and 2080 demonstrated the positive effect of changing climate variables on the net income of both products. Therefore, climate change can result in an upward trend in the net income obtained from citrus production and, consequently, the development of employment in this sector.