Modeling the Changes in the Population Age Structure with an Emphasis on Medical Services’ State (Case Study: Tabriz City)

According to the forecasts of the World Health Organization, in the future, there will be a growth in the elderly population, which requires planning and policies. The process of changing the age structure of the population will lead to the phenomenon of aging in societies. In this regard, planning for the body and structure of the city without considering the changing demographic structure in the future will definitely fail. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the changes in the age structure of the population of Tabriz city, emphasizing the health services and its forecast until 2051. This research follows a descriptive-correlational approach and is a survey in terms of the method of data collection. The population of the present study is 68821 patients who were presented by Tabriz hospitals. First, the demographic data of the two decades of 2006 to 2016 were used as the basis for population forecasting, and then for analyzing the data, the dynamic systems-based approach was used to assess the need for medical services up to 1430 with a systemic view. The results of the research showed that by 2051, a total of 4948 hospital beds and 2418 nurses should be added to bring Tabriz to a normal state compared to the current conditions of the city. Predictions show that the problem of the aging population will undoubtedly affect the health care system of Tabriz city, and to provide medical services for the elderly population in the next 30 years, medical facilities must be increased significantly, and this requires comprehensive planning.