Dynamic Modeling of Land Use Changes based on Human-Environmental System (Case Study: Taleghan Watershed)

Land use changes in countries like Iran, which is facing space limitations, should be thoughtful and in accordance with proper planning, just like water consumption. On the other hand, the inherent dynamism of human beings and their needs has made the way and extent of land use change over time. Therefore, the aim of this research is the dynamic modeling of land use changes based on the human-environmental system in Taleghan watershed. For this purpose, land use maps for the years 1994, 1999, 2002, 2009, 2014, 2019 were classified into six classes of pasture, forest, agricultural land, barren land, residential land, and water using Landsat satellite time series images. After the validation of the maps and the detection of changes, under the three scenarios of current economic growth, rapid economic growth and sustainable development, simulation was carried out until 1435 using dynamic system modeling. The results of detecting land use changes during the period show that the trend of changes in agricultural lands, pastures, forests, has been decreasing, and barren lands and residential areas have always had an increasing trend during the survey period. The results of the simulation show that among the three scenarios examined, the sustainable development scenario of coordination between the amount of land utilization and meeting the needs of the community and economic growth has been acceptable. Therefore, it can be concluded that the sustainable development scenario is an important basis for land use planning in the coming years in order to reduce the destruction of natural resources and maintain a stable state in it, and this scenario will bring favorable economic growth in the future.