Estimating the Level and Age Pattern of Fertility in Afghanistan: Evaluation and Analysis of 2015 Demographic and Health Survey Data

Afghanistan's fertility status and other demographic aspects are poorly understood due to the country's insecurity, political instability, and lack of reliable population data. The country has a low contraceptive prevalence rate and varying estimates of the total fertility rate, which cast doubt on the validity of its population data and its demographic estimates. The 2015 Demographic and Health Survey of Afghanistan (AFDHS2015) is the only available data source that can be used to analyze the country's fertility status. This study aims to assess the validity and reliability of the AFDHS2015 data using different methods and to examine the pattern and trend of fertility in Afghanistan. This survey included 29,461 women aged 15-49 from all over Afghanistan. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Afghanistan in 2015 was estimated using different methods the indirect Brass P/F Ratio and Rele methods yielded 5 and 5.4 children per woman, respectively, while the direct method yielded 5 children per woman. The marital fertility rate (MFR) is 7.1 children per woman based on age and 7 children per woman based on parity. The average parity progression ratio (PPR) and the cumulative fertility rate (CFR) of married women also indicate that each woman had 7.2 children by the end of her reproductive years. According to the PPR values, 90% of women aged 45-49 in Afghanistan had at least 5 children in 2015. Moreover, 77% of women in this age group who had 7 children proceeded to have an eighth child. The results suggest that AFDHS2015 data, as the only available data source, can provide relatively accurate evidence of the level and age patterns of fertility in Afghanistan.