نشریه نامه انجمن جمعیت شناسی ایران
پیاپی 35 (بهار و تابستان 1402)

Human resources is one of the most important factors of production that plays an effective role in the economic growth and development of the country. The Human Resources market is more sensitive compared to other markets; because in addition to being affected by economic factors, it is also affected by social and demographic factors. In this research, the determinants of labor supply in Iran were studied by developing a system model based on the qualitative system dynamics Approach. This method helps the policymakers to get a deep understanding of the complexities and delays in the system by seeing the different fields as interdependent. The labor force participation rate as the proportion of the working-age population of a country that is active (employed or unemployed) in the labor market is an indication of the relative supply of labor. The paper uses expert opinions and previous research to identify demographic, economic, and social factors that affect labor force participation, such as marriage, fertility, retirement, immigration, economic growth, job opportunities, human capital, and corruption. According to the results, with the increase in GDP and consequently the increase in job opportunities, the probability of finding a job increases, and foreign migrations decrease. This path, together with the increase in the retirement age and the reduction of corruption, which faces the path of economic growth with many obstacles, can lead to an increase in the labor supply.

Today, despite the extended awareness and knowledge of the public in the various fields, early marriages are still common in the world and Iran. North Khorasan is among the provinces with the highest number of early marriages in Iran. The current research aims to study the causal, contextual, and intervening factors affecting early marriages among under 15 year old women in Titkanlu city in North Khorasan province. The research method is a qualitative method and the grounded theory approach is also applied. The participants of the present study include 24 under 15-year-old married women from Titkanlu City, who were selected using purposeful and theoretical sampling methods. The data were collected using in-depth semi-structured interviews and analyzed through the systematic procedures by Strauss and Corbin (1990) in three "open", "central" and "selective" coding phases. The research findings indicate that the causal conditions affecting early marriages are: individual factors, family factors, social factors, cultural factors, and economic factors. The importance of the body and the use of mass media are also known as contextual conditions affecting early marriages. Religious and traditional beliefs and hegemonic masculinity are also intervening factors that have been effective in early marriages in Titkanlo city.

The increasing prevalence of childlessness over the last four decades worldwide has garnered the attention of researchers. This research aims to review studies on childlessness in Iran and worldwide. The studies were categorized into three sections: childlessness rate, causes, and consequences. The childlessness rate is generally lower in developing regions compared to developed countries, although it is increasing in the former group. The most significant causes of childlessness include urbanization, expansion of education, the cost of raising children, gender equality, individual independence, and well-being, concerns about population growth and environmental sustainability, the structure of welfare states, and diminishing religion and religious beliefs influence. The consequences of childlessness tend to be predominantly negative, with depression, anxiety, social stigma, divorce, and spousal violence. Nonetheless, some positive outcomes, such as higher life satisfaction and well-being, have also been reported. An overlooked aspect in this area is the neglect of men and the need to examine the impact of this phenomenon on families and society, rather than solely focusing on women. Only a few studies have been conducted on childlessness in Iran, and accurate statistics regarding its prevalence are unavailable. The existing statistics are derived from studies conducted for different purposes. The findings suggest that childlessness has not yet escalated to a problematic level, despite the increasing trends.

Male infertility has been defined as one of the significant disorders and complex social issues with various consequences. This study aimed to explore the lived experience of infertile men using a qualitative and phenomenological approach. The research population consisted of 17 men undergoing treatment at the Mehr Infertility Institute in Rasht. A purposive sampling method was used to select the participants, and sampling continued until data saturation at which point no new information was obtained. The research employed semi-structured interviews, which were analyzed using Colaizzi’s method. The findings revealed that the predominant theme is "silent masculinity." This situation proved to be paradoxical and multi-faceted for infertile men, as evident in eleven sub-themes: feeling of despair about parenthood, existential crisis, cognitive shift in the realm of fertility, the label of "having no offspring," erosion of marital capital, pervasive suffering, erosion of social capital, blurred masculine identity, proximity to the downfall of life, feigned indifference, and living in the shadow. Infertility and delayed parenthood, as a multidimensional dilemma, have brought about specific conditions and are accompanied by entrenched cultural patterns, and mental and social tensions.

Considering the importance of the compatibility of job roles with long-term family commitments, this study investigated the relationship between work-family conflict and marriage-childbearing attitudes of employed women. The theoretical framework is based on role conflict, gender inequality, social support, and economic resources theories. The study according to the type and method of data collection, is quantitative. The field of study is Sanandaj and the sample includes 338 employed never-married and married women aged 15-49 who were selected by multistage cluster and simple sampling. The results showed that never-married women who experience higher work-family conflict consider an older age suitable for marriage. Also, the higher experience of work-family conflict among married women is associated with the attitude of having fewer children. The findings of multivariate analysis showed that among never-married women, 23.5% of the changes in attitude towards marriage age were explained by employment status and work-family conflict; and among married women, 42.5% of the changes in attitude towards the ideal number of children were explained by work-family conflict and age. Placing women in safe job positions and resolving work-family conflicts by adopting family support policies to realize the ideals of marriage-childbearing are the policy recommendations of this study.

This study examines how socioeconomic and demographic factors influence labor force participation (LFP) in Iran. Data from the Iranian Household Income and Expenditure Survey applied the pseudo-panel data method used. The logit model estimations show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between age and the probability of LFP, with higher chances of entering the labor market at younger than at middle or old ages. Marital status also affects LFP, with respectively never-married and divorced people more likely to participate in the labor market than married people. Being a student reduces the likelihood of LFP while having a larger household size and a higher level of education increases it. Being the head of the household increases the probability of LFP by 39%. Demographic trends in Iran, such as the high proportion of young adults (25-44 years old) who want to join the labor force, the large number of young people in higher education, and the rising rates of divorce and singlehood, suggest that the economic participation rate will increase shortly. Therefore, this important issue should be considered in the macro-policy.

The ideal number of children provides an estimate of women's actual fertility. In addition to the numerous social and health consequences, domestic violence against women can have an impact on their fertility and childbearing ideals. This quantitative study aims to investigate the influence of domestic violence on women's ideal fertility. The study employed a survey method and utilized the multi-stage cluster sampling technique to survey 379 married women of reproductive age in the city of Sadra, Fars province. Data collection was conducted using a structured questionnaire. The findings revealed that the most prevalent ideal fertility pattern among the participants is having two children. Furthermore, the results indicated that 13.5% of the women surveyed experienced moderate to high levels of violence. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that an increase in domestic violence against women is associated with a decrease in their ideal fertility. Thus, strengthening the foundation of families and reducing domestic violence against women can impact population growth. Consequently, it is recommended to incorporate the reduction of domestic violence against women into new population policies.

It seems necessary to identify underlying factors of conflict between couples, and especially women before starting marriage life, to prevent divorce in the later stages of marriage. The current study aims to investigate the factors affecting First Marriage Survival (FMS) of 279 divorced women without marriage life experience. First, the most important determinants of women’s FMS were selected using the non-parametric survival forest approach, and then parametric survival models were fitted to the data. FMS of 17.9% and 30.1% women were less than one year and 1-2 years, respectively. Using the most efficient survival forest algorithm in forecasting, important covariates were extracted and the shared frailty Weibull accelerated failure time model was fitted as the final FMS model; educational years (P-value=0.001) and informal (P-value=0.013) and formal (P-value=0.007) acquaintance years had significant effects on these women’s FMS. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies to provide the possibility of employment for educated women, increase the formal acquaintance duration, and reduce the informal acquaintance duration to survive women's marriages in the pre-marriage period.

This paper aims to study some of the consequences of divorce for divorced women with an emphasis on socio-demographic variables; monthly income, age, education level, and size of the household. Using the survey method, the data were collected in the form of a questionnaire and the form of a targeted and available sample of 440 divorced women in Ahvaz City. According to the findings, among the most important social problems of divorced women can be mentioned the humiliating and oppressive society's view of women, the feeling of being under constant surveillance, and frequent harassment that weakens women's self-confidence. The insufficient income of divorced women to meet the needs of themselves and their children has caused this group of women to face severe economic deprivation. Being affected by children's feelings and emotions as well as feeling depressed in divorced women is one of the most important psychological consequences of divorce. In issues related to health and physiology, the increase in the consumption of sedatives in divorced women has led to changes in their body structure and the deterioration of their health. One of the important findings of this research is the priority of social issues over other issues (economic, psychological, and physiological). Divorced women who have lower income, education, and age, compared to divorced women who have better education and economic status and older age, suffer from more social, economic, psychological, and physiological issues and problems. The results of this article can be effective in many dimensions in understanding and dealing with the issue of divorce and can be a way for policymakers and planners to pay more attention to the issues of divorced women.

Afghanistan's fertility status and other demographic aspects are poorly understood due to the country's insecurity, political instability, and lack of reliable population data. The country has a low contraceptive prevalence rate and varying estimates of the total fertility rate, which cast doubt on the validity of its population data and its demographic estimates. The 2015 Demographic and Health Survey of Afghanistan (AFDHS2015) is the only available data source that can be used to analyze the country's fertility status. This study aims to assess the validity and reliability of the AFDHS2015 data using different methods and to examine the pattern and trend of fertility in Afghanistan. This survey included 29,461 women aged 15-49 from all over Afghanistan. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Afghanistan in 2015 was estimated using different methods the indirect Brass P/F Ratio and Rele methods yielded 5 and 5.4 children per woman, respectively, while the direct method yielded 5 children per woman. The marital fertility rate (MFR) is 7.1 children per woman based on age and 7 children per woman based on parity. The average parity progression ratio (PPR) and the cumulative fertility rate (CFR) of married women also indicate that each woman had 7.2 children by the end of her reproductive years. According to the PPR values, 90% of women aged 45-49 in Afghanistan had at least 5 children in 2015. Moreover, 77% of women in this age group who had 7 children proceeded to have an eighth child. The results suggest that AFDHS2015 data, as the only available data source, can provide relatively accurate evidence of the level and age patterns of fertility in Afghanistan.

This study aimed to examine the subjective well-being of Afghan immigrants residing in Shiraz and explore the factors associated with it. The statistical population of this research comprised Afghan immigrants aged 15-59 living in Shiraz city, from which a random sample of 380 individuals was selected. Data collection involved in-person interviews and the administration of a questionnaire. The well-being scale utilized in this study was developed by Samaram and Mahboubi (2013). The findings indicate that, on average, 62.2% of the respondents reported a moderate level of well-being, while 30.8% expressed a high degree of well-being. Overall, the subjective well-being of immigrants in this research was considered average. Moreover, the results highlight the association between gender, marital status, employment status, length of stay in Iran, income, and economic class with the level of subjective well-being among Afghan citizens living in Shiraz. The perception of well-being is relative, as individuals' assessment of the objective life conditions and existing realities shape their feelings about life and its quality, consequently influencing their level of happiness or unhappiness.

The migration of creative and highly skilled people has received less attention, especially at the national level, compared to all types of migration. The purpose of this research is to explain the factors that influence the location and migration decisions of creative and highly skilled human capital in the metropolises of Iran, with a focus on the metropolis of Tehran. It also aims to understand and explain the mechanism by which Tehran attracts the country's creative class. This research was carried out using the method of content analysis, and the required data and information were collected from 19 participants using the interview technique. Based on the findings, in Iran and especially in the Tehran metropolis, nine variables have the greatest impact on the location and migration decisions of creative and highly skilled human capital. They are Tolerance and Diversity, Facilities, Advantages and Distinctions, Economic and Professional Life, Culture and Lifestyle, Feeling Progressed, Personal and Family, International Atmosphere, and Obstacles and Disadvantages. Since Tehran has the upper hand in these variables, it directs the flow of the country's creative class to itself; thus, 52% of the creative class of the metropolises is concentrated in Tehran. Moving towards decentralization policies, especially from the metropolis of Tehran and balanced regional development in the country, can provide the basis for brain circulation in the country and, consequently, a relatively balanced distribution of the creative class.