Identification and Analysis of the Social Drivers Governing the Tourism Development Policy of Iranian Cities in the Horizon 2025 with a Future Studies Approach

Today, tourism is more than an industry, as a global and social dynamic phenomenon with its own complexities. A detailed understanding and scientific analysis of this phenomenon can provide a reliable framework for planning the tourism industry. As the biggest social movement with numerous cultural, economic, and spatial consequences, this industry always needs to make its development effective now and in the future. In this regard, planning for tourism development depends on various factors and conditions, which can be achieved under the condition of their systematic and structured application. This issue shows the importance of future research, the necessity of formulating future visions in the tourism development process, and the social drivers among them. For this purpose, the current research attempts to identify and analyze the critical social drivers affecting tourism development in the horizon 2025. In the following article, 17 primary factors were extracted with the Delphi technique, then the cross-effects matrix of the components was formed using the Delphi method of managers. In the next step, matrix analysis was done with Mic Mac software. The results of the dispersion of the variables in the axis of influence and influence of the factors in the Mic Mac software show the system's stability in tourism development. Accordingly, the findings of the research showed that among the drivers identified, the drivers of the development of participation in tourism, strengthening the knowledge of the residents of areas with tourist attractions regarding the tourism potential of the region, developing local native games, the mental image of the tourist destination, strengthening local institutions in order to invest in tourism, making the local community aware of how to deal with tourists. Increasing the culture of tourism acceptance, the connection between the components of the tourism chain, accommodation facilities, and arranging the influence of natives' opinions in the meetings of people and officials in the media were identified as key drivers.