Sustainable Energy Transition for Cities Based on Long-Term Planning Supported by a Fuzzy Cognitive Map

The present study was aims to explore resilience and transformation capabilities and explore their applicability in the field of energy. It focuses especially on the role of the cognitions of stakeholders and decision-makers in the uptake and management of sustainability transitions. Fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) is used to aggregate different stakeholders’ views on the functioning and performance of the urban energy system of the city of Tehran. In the case of Tehran, the urban energy network is analyzed in terms of resilience and transformability by studying the degree of connectivity and its influence on both system characteristics. Three scenarios of policy options are simulated to weight their outcomes in terms of sustainability, Scenario A: Optimization of economic incentives; Scenario B: Strong education and awareness campaigns; and Scenario C: Stronger local institutional initiatives. Scenario A shows a potential perverse effect if the current economic structure is maintained, even if the economic crisis is overcome. Combining Scenarios B and C provides the best results in terms of sustainability. This suggests that successful transformation in cities should pivot on a combination of top-down and bottom-up actions to unlock resilient but unsustainable states, and that special care needs to be taken when managing highly connected and/or influential elements of the system, as contextual dependencies might hinder the agency of change, particularly in the context of cities. Network characteristics, such as connectivity, can be useful indicators to inform resilience and transformation management, although the double-edge sword nature of connectivity should be noted.