Designing the adaptive behavior model of Varamin livestock farmers in dealing with climate change with a Bayesian approach

This research was conducted to investigate the adaptation behavior of Varamin livestock farmers to climatic changes. The research method was a combination of sequential exploratory types. In the qualitative phase, by using in-depth interview tools and grounded theory, the formation of a theory of adaptive behavior towards climate change and its consequences was discussed. In the quantitative phase, using the variables obtained in the qualitative phase and the questionnaire tool, Agen's planned behavior theory was tested using the structural equation model. The studied population was the livestock farmers of Varamin City (N=1198). The sampling method was purposeful in the qualitative part. In the quantitative section, the sample number of 299 people was obtained using Cochran's formula. The validity of the tool was checked through content and face validity and reliability through Cronbach's alpha. The results of the qualitative part showed that awareness of the climate change signs, decrease in rainfall, and increase in temperature and temperature fluctuations are part of the causal conditions, technology, and management of place and livestock in the central phenomenon and animal health, reduction of environmental damage and increase in production was in the consequences section. The results of the quantitative phase of the research indicated that the variable of awareness with its effect on attitude can have the greatest effect on the adaptive behavior formation of livestock farmers in the region; Also, the variables of awareness, attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control predict a high percentage of changes in behavioral inclination (dependent mediator variable) and changes in the adaptation behavior of livestock farmers to climate changes in the region. Finally, according to the research results, suggestions were presented.