From the continuity of National Samand to the Iranian Tesla; scenarios of the development of the automobile industry in Iran

In recent years, rapid and intense changes in technology, as well as important economic, social, cultural and technological changes in the automobile and transportation industry, have created complex conditions for actors and stakeholders in this field. In order to face these complexities, the present research aims to identify the key uncertainties and present the future scenarios of the inner-city car industry. In the present research, using the information obtained from in-depth interviews with experts and activists in the field, reviewing previous studies and examining evidence, statistics and events, the final scenarios have been refined. The findings of this research include 39 important drivers and 13 key uncertainties and 2 critical uncertainties including the level of international cooperation and new and strategic technologies in the automobile industry. Then, based on these two critical uncertainties, four upcoming scenarios in the automobile industry were identified and verified.