The application of future researches in the spatial planning of rural settlements, a case study of Garmadoz and the central sector of Khodaafrin city

One of the vital orientations in line with development policies is innovative foresight. The term foresight and foresight refers to a wide range of approaches that avoid repetitive outcomes and improve decision-making and attempt to map the best possible future over a long-term time horizon, thus striving to achieve comprehensive planning. And achieving local, micro and regional sustainable development and reducing regional imbalances, recognizing the criteria and key capabilities of these sectors and changing the approach from forecasting to future research is an undeniable necessity. And based on this, the goal and question of this research is to identify key factors that are effective in formulating future scenarios and to identify development factors on the future situation.

The current research is descriptive and analytical and applied in nature.which was realized by emphasizing participation with the presence of all stakeholders. The scope of research is at the local level. And the target area includes ecological, physical, social and cultural, economic, political and managerial. The type of expected output is the way to identify the key factors affecting the future situation with an emphasis on the modeling method of the factor analysis type and the target groups including all the residents of the settlements and governmental and non-governmental organizations.which followed the Delphi method. So that the required data has been collected using field operations at the level of 104 villages through holding discussion group meetings through the formation of cooperative cores using local experts, representatives of different groups using the Delphi method. And finally, identification of key factors was used to develop future scenarios and identification of development drivers.

Future visions are one of the key measures. And it can be used strategically for policy making. In addition to that, it can help everyone to understand the concept of their development through future change. However, until the last two decades, it followed the traditional top-down approach. And it did not provide a long-term and growing economic base. But today, local initiatives and bottom-up development (endogenous development) have led to changes in spatial development. Therefore, this matter was taken into consideration in order to make this research as close to reality as possible. And it is even differentiating this research from other research findings.which mainly emphasize the role of governments (traditional top-down planning approach). But this research has adopted the endogenous approach (planning and policy-making from the bottom up). And the planners and policy makers are obliged to use the participation of local residents and the results of research findings for the future study of Khadafarin city in formulating spatial development plans.In this way, to have a significant impact on the future events and processes of Khadafarin city and draw long-term results.

This research was established with the aim of investigating and identifying key factors using the intellectual basis of factor analysis. And the method used in it has unique complexity and innovation. And it is among the first scientific experience of studies related to future research at the local level. Therefore, it should be acknowledged that various factors can affect the arrangement of phenomena and structure and consequently the spatial organization of a region. It seems that the identification of different and integrated methods can be of great help in this process. Therefore, considering the identification of three key factors: 1- Environmental sustainability (with 8 programs and Pishran projects) 2- Protection of natural resources (with 3 programs and Pishran projects) 3- Land management and agricultural production (with 3 programs and Pishran project); Through mutual/structural effects analysis, these factors were selected as the key factors of the study area, and the subvariables of each of these factors (extracted from factor analysis type modeling) were determined as driving programs and projects.