Investigating the Coordination Impact of Monetary and Financial Policies on Smuggling Goods Iran

Goods smuggling as a branch of the informal economy has destructive effects on social and economic development in developing countries. The most significant negative impact of smuggling on the economy is the decline in economic growth. Also, goods smuggling increases unemployment due to unequal competition with legal and official activities. Therefore, investigating the determinants of goods smuggling is very vital. The performance of policymakers through monetary and fiscal policies is one of the factors that can play a considerable role in controlling or expanding smuggling: while the issue has been examined in experimental studies less than other issues. Therefore, this research seeks to investigate the impact of monetary and financial policies on goods smuggling from 1998 to 2021 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and Seasonal data. The results of the research showed that in the short term, the coincidence of expansionary monetary and financial policies leads to an increase in smugglingIn the long run, expansionary fiscal policy causes to increase in smuggling, but expansionary monetary policy lead to a reduction in smuggling. Increasing exchange rate, political and economic risks also increase smuggling in the short run and the long run, increasing of exchange rate and economic risk lead to an increase in smuggling, but increasing of political risk leads to a decrease in smuggling. Therefore, it is suggested that considering the direct impact of monetary and financial policies on smuggling, they should follow the central bank's independence in providing policy packages and correct targeting.