فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 108 (زمستان 1402)

The import of Barley, as one of the main inputs of animal feed, has done by a preferential exchange rate during 2018 to 2019. The main question is whether this allocation was able to be transferred to its price or not. To answer this question, time series data with monthly frequency of the price of barley, its world price and the official exchange rate during the period of Farvardin 2009 to Azar 2019 and the nonlinear model of Markov switching regime change (MSIAH) have been used. The results indicated that for the barley, the exchange rate has passed in three (3) different regimes and asymmetrically. Also, in none of the regimes, complete transition did not occur and the regimes identified were stable. In the short term, exchange rate to barley price in the first regime was significant and equal to two percent (2%). In the long term, the rate of passing in this regime was equal to four percent (4%). Due to the fact that the price of Barley, the amount and the period of passing of the preferred exchange rate have been very low and short, therefore it is suggested to refrain from re-allocating the currency with any preferential rate to this input. Since the cost of red meat production increases with the liberalization of the barley import rate, it is suggested to pay compensation to households as the final link of consumption and to help finance the producers as the demanders of imported inputs.

Optimum financing of economic enterprises is a necessary action that can improve the quality and quantity of domestic industries in the prevailing competitive environment and ultimately lead to the economic growth and prosperity of the country. Investigations show that some of the production plans in the country, such as steel projects, are defined with liquidity problems in order to achieve production capacity, therefore, considering the importance of steel projects in the country's economy, so far the issue of choosing the optimal method of financing the relevant industry as a No special attention is needed. Therefore, in the current research, we are seeking to discover the most optimal financing model for Iran's steel industry based on a series of specific criteria. In this study, through the statistical technique of multi-criteria decision-making and the design and distribution of a questionnaire to experts in order to prioritize the financing methods of the steel industry, which were extracted through a semi-structured interview, and the analysis and final ranking of the obtained information Using the TOPSIS method, the factors and financing methods of the steel industry were evaluated, and in this regard, pairwise comparisons were used to rank the factors and weights. The results of this study indicate that the project fund option compared to other options, including: construction, exploitation and ownership, parallel istisna, bonds convertible into shares, partnership bonds and lease bonds are of the highest priority according to It has components and criteria such as reasonable cost, etc. compared to other financing options, so it is suggested that companies active in the steel industry in the country prioritize financing in this way.

Demand management is one of the important tools that it is necessary to use in the current conditions of the country's electricity industry. This requires research that aims to investigate the application of such policies and evaluate the results of using different methods of demand management. This research, using a constrained partial equilibrium optimization model for the country's electricity industry, seeks to investigate the effects of applying demand management policies on the country's power plant production arrangement, production costs, and finally shadow prices on the electricity supply side. Two scenarios introduced next to the reference scenario. In the reference scenario, demand management is not applied and its results used to compare the results of the other two scenarios. In the other two scenarios, one applies the peak-time policy, which means that 10% of the peak consumption been directly reduced, and in the second scenario, 10% of the consumption of peak hours transferred to non-peak hours. According to the obtained results, changes in demand during peak hours lead to changes in production arrangement and reduce the share of fossil power plants. In addition, production costs been reduced by shifting consumption to off-peak hours and finally, peak and off-peak prices are closer to each other with load shifting.

The challenge of employment or the issue of unemployment is not only considered one of the most important social issues of the day in the country, but considering the rate of population growth in the past two decades, it can also be considered the most important economic-social challenge of the next few decades. On the other hand, in the last hundred years, the world has seen different economic and non-economic crises, such as the 2008 American financial crisis and the spread of the C ovid-19. The economic policies used to overcome the crisis have been different according to the time period and the depth of the recession resulting from the crisis, the reasons for the occurrence of the crisis and the extent of the crisis in different countries. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to analyze the country's tax policies during the outbreak of the covid-19 on the employment level of the country: the Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach during the years 1397 to 1400. The findings of this research indicated that the shock of Corona caused a 50% decrease in employment in the service sector. The decline in employment affects the borrowers sector and reduces their consumption by almost 10%. This decrease in the consumption of the non-service sector has also led to a decrease in employment in other sectors by 4 percent. In turn, these interactions lead to a 10 percent decrease in GDP. In order to investigate the effect of the government's tax policies on macroeconomic variables, especially the level of employment during the outbreak of the Corona virus, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been designed for the Iranian economy in the form of three scenarios facing the government. After specifying the model, optimizing and obtaining the first-order condition of the economic factors, the results of the calibration indicate that the effect of the government's financial policies on the macroeconomic variables under all three scenarios are almost the same and are in accordance with the theoretical expectations of the economy. The increase in government spending has helped to maintain employment in the non-service sector, and the reduction of taxes by maintaining the income of borrowers leads to a decrease in unemployment and a decrease in default rates. Based on this, it is suggested that the government reduce the harmful effects of the spread of the corona virus by adopting better financial policies, especially in the field of taxation, so that the level of employment and other macroeconomic variables reach their stable status.

The main goal of this research is to evaluate and analyze the condition of economies of scale in Iran's manufacturing sector and examine its developments using the econometric methodology with the Translog cost function approach.The findings of this research show that Iran's industries have not yet used the benefits of their economies of scale during the past two decades, and from this point of view, they still have small scales. The ratio of added value to the number of enterprises and the ratio of real investment to the number of enterprises as indicators of the scale of production in the 1390s compared to the 1380s has become smaller. In other words, the scale of production in Iran's manufacturing sector has decreased during the last decade, and this is a confirmation of a long-term stagnation in Iran's industrial sector. Also, the results of the investigation at the level of two-digit ISIC codes also shows that the industries of food products, production of tobacco and tobacco products, production of clothing, production of leather and related products, production of other means of transportation, and production of furniture in They have moved to reduce the scale. On the other hand, the industries of production of various types of beverages, production of paper and paper products, printing and reproduction of recorded media, production of chemicals and chemical products, and production of drugs and chemical and herbal medicinal products have clearly moved towards increasing scales. The most important policy recommendation of this study is predicting the price and access to raw materials, access to financial resources, reforming the ownership and management structure of large industrial companies by moving towards the private sector and especially market development for domestic industrial products and the possibility of accessing markets. The external goal is to increase industrial exports along with increasing competitiveness in global markets

According to the economic literature, the exchange rate is one of the important channels of money transfer, so that changes in the exchange rate play an important role in creating the competitiveness and uncertainty of the economy. This can put monetary policy changes on inflation and production growth under different conditions in different conditions. In this regard, this article has investigated the role of exchange rate in the effect of money on inflation and gross domestic product growth by using the seasonal time series data of 1370-1400 and using the time-varying auto-correlation parameter method (TVP-VAR). The results of this study show that the lower the variance of the exchange rate growth, the more effective the monetary policy is in curbing inflation. On the other hand, if the average growth of the exchange rate is close to the growth of the monetary base, then the monetary policy will increase production. Also, if the exchange rate grows more than the monetary base, inflation increases and GDP growth decreases. The results of this research confirm that the growth of the monetary base more than the economic capacity leads to an increase in inflation and a decrease in production growth, and this inflationary process leads to an increase in the exchange rate. In such a structure of the economy, where high money printing is a prominent feature, the suppression of the exchange rate provides the basis for increasing the currency jump, and the currency jump is an important factor in strengthening the recessionary inflation in the economy. Therefore, the policy recommendation of the present study is to reduce the growth of the monetary base and not to manipulate the exchange rate

The tax system provides the necessary financial resources for the administration of the country to use the collected resources for the welfare of the majority of the society and the improvement of public infrastructure; Therefore, the survival of the political and administrative system of any country requires the existence of an efficient tax system. In this regard, the aim of the current research is to analyze the effect of tax complexity and fairness on economic welfare in Iran in the period 1977 to 2021, and using the linear and non-linear ARDL method, the research model has been estimated in two symmetric and asymmetric formats. For this purpose, tax complexity was calculated using the Harishman-Herfindahl index and economic well-being with the combined index of economic well-being. The moving trend of the economic welfare index shows that the welfare fluctuates during the period under review. The average welfare index in the first and Sixth program has decreased compared to the previous period and has been increasing in the following periods and has an average of 40.62. The average complexity and fairness of taxation in the first, fifth and sixth plans have decreased compared to their previous sub-periods. The long-term results in the symmetric model show that the complexity tax is associated with the adverse effect for economic well-being, but tax fairness does not have a significant effect on economic well-being. In an asymmetric model, tax fairness has a direct and asymmetric effect on economic well-being; In such a way that the size of the positive effect of reductions in tax fairness on economic well-being is greater than increases in it. Tax complexity is also associated with an asymmetric effect on economic well-being. In such a way that only increases in tax complexity have an adverse effect on economic well-being. Inflation and unformal exchange rate have a negative effect on economic well-being, and per capita income has a positive effect on economic welfare. Also, in the years after the revolution until the end of the war and the years after the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the level of economic well-being has decreased. According to the results, it is suggested that the government consider policies such as simplifying tax laws, creating a comprehensive and developed tax information system, reducing the cost of tax collection and imposing a tax on total income, and increasing the tax knowledge of taxpayers and tax experts, reforming put the tax system and diversity in tax bases on the agenda.

One of the most important monetary policy targets is price stability. In the framework of inflation targeting, the central banks use the policy interest rate to implement their monetary policy, especially in the last decade. In the Iranian economy, there are various discussions about the effectiveness of the policy interest rate to guide the inflation rate, and it is argued that since the channels of the policy interest rate effect are incomplete in the Iranian economy, this tool isn’t efficient enough to guide the inflation rate. This study investigates the quantitative effect of the policy interest rate change on macro variables and evaluates the effectiveness of the policy interest rate tool in the implementation of inflation targeting, by a vector error correction model for Iran's macroeconomics. The results indicate that despite the shortcomings of the interest rate influencing channels on macroeconomic variables, the increase in the policy interest rate has strong anti-inflationary effects in such a way that an increase of 1 percentage point in the policy interest rate causes a 1.3 percentage point decrease in inflation after 24 months. Therefore, the results indicate that the policy interest rate in Iran's economy, despite the shortcomings of influence channels, is efficient enough to guide the inflation rate

In this article, following a review of the background and literature related to development banking, an examination of the key and influential factors in development banking is conducted. The documents and resources selection criteria included the alignment of title, abstract, and content with development banks. The statistical population of this research includes available articles & resources related to development banks which are available in domestic and foreign databases, websites, and the statutes of development banks. All documents related to the subject until 2023 AD and 1402 SH were examined. Using the CASP method, 149 articles and documents were evaluated, and ultimately, a targeted selection of 85 articles/documents was subjected. 88 components, 8 themes, and 6 categories were identified, and their reliability was confirmed through Cohen's kappa coefficient. Long-term investment and financing of projects, focusing on industry and production sectors, focus on large companies, the management approach, knowledge acquisition and innovation from advanced countries, focusing on infrastructure sectors, comprehensive risk management, and improving capital structure were among the most important and recurring identified components. As this research is the first article on the meta-synthesis of factors affecting development banking performance, it provides a deeper understanding of the existing literature on these banks.