Futures Studies of Post-Covid -19 Urban Management Paradigm with Emphasis on Urban Resilience (Case: Tehran Metropolis)

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the futures of post -Covid -19 urban management paradigm with emphasis on urban resilience in Tehran metropolis. For this purpose, macrotrends and interactions between them were analyzed and ranked. In terms of purpose and nature, this is a developmental -applied and a descriptive -analytical research, respectively. In this study, first, reviewing the theoretical literature, and next, using the opinions of experts (n=40) through Delphi technique, the most important macrotrends were extracted. MICMAC software was used to analyze the cross effects of macrotrends and determine direct and indirect influence and effect of each macrotrend. A total of 74 macrotrends were identified in 8 general dimensions (urban economy, social, environmental and urban environment, physical and urban infrastructure, management and urban institutions, urban security, politics and rule, individual -psychological) that a total of 5402 cases of interactions between macrotrends were rated as cross effects. According to the outcome of Cross -Impact Matrix (CIM) and Matrix of Direct Influence (MDI), among the macrotrends along with resilience management of Tehran metropolis after COVID -19 pandemic, in management, social -participatory and economic foundations terms, the integrated urban management, participation of citizens and public institutions to deal with crisis, inflation rate, level of citizens' trust in urban authorities and managers, increasing investments in Tehran metropolis (domestic and foreign investments) to re -build spaces and urban infrastructure, paying attention to and increasing research and development expenditure of knowledge -based businesses, electronic -city infrastructure, accountability of urban managers for their managerial functions, slum dwelling and organizing it, housing accessibility (purchase or rent), migration (elites, physicians, specialists, etc.) had the most influence, respectively . According to the calculations, there were 15 influential, 5 planar, 6 influenced, 8 independent and 40 regulatory macrotrends. Based on the analysis on the type of macrotrends distribution and direct influence of macrotrends on each other, the resilience system of Tehran is unstable and future scenarios for resilience of Tehran metropolis should be considered based on key basic factors .