Modeling Echis carinatus bite risk under current and future ‎climate in Iran

Snakebite is a global health problem and important conservation challenge. Knowing where snakebite risk is highest can help snakebite management. But climate change is altering snakebite risk pattern making its management more difficult and complicated.
In this study we used Echis carinatus’ habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, under current and future climatic conditions. We applied an ensemble of five distribution modelling methods (Generalized linear models (GLMs), Generalized additive models (GAMs), Generalized boosted models (GBMs), Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and Random Forest (RF)) to model the species habitat suitability. In addition, we identified villages that are at risk of envenoming form the species under current and future climate.
Results showed that the species suitable habitat will increase under climate change as consequence number of villages at risk will increase from 70247 to 82881 putting more human population at risk of envenoming.
High snakebite risk areas identified in this study are high priority target areas for awareness raising program and antivenom distribution. This study demonstrates usefulness of habitat suitability modeling in identifying high snakebite risk area in Iran.