The Periodic Development of Kermanshah Metropolis and the Analysis of Earthquake Vulnerability from the Perspective of Passive Defense by Using TOPSIS and Entropy Models

Cities, as the most complex man-made structures, face a wide range of risks, both due to a wide range of hazards and due to their multiple vulnerabilities. Urban vulnerabilities are felt everywhere, from infrastructure and buildings to telecommunications, transportation and energy lines, and it should be kept in mind that reducing vulnerabilities on the scale of a city is not simply reinforcing buildings and single buildings. The disasters that have happened in recent years show that societies and individuals have become more and more vulnerable, and the risks and hazards have also increased. Risk is a combination of danger and vulnerability. However, reducing risk and vulnerability is often ignored until after accidents occur. Based on the predictions made, by 2030, about 6 billion people out of the 8.1 billion population of the planet will live in cities, and about two-thirds of them will live in metropolises.

The current research is applied and is descriptive-analytic in terms of implementation method. The statistical population of this research consists of experts and professors according to the subject, 30 people among them have been selected as the sample size using the personal estimation method. It was done in the 8th region by using some models (Topsis, Shannon Entropy) and finally GIS software was used to draw the maps. Statistical sources and documents were prepared for this purpose, and required maps were collected from related organizations and departments. In general, maps: 1. Map of municipal areas 2. Periodic development 3. Earthquake lines 4. Rivers, etc. were used in the analysis of this article. It should be noted that many of the maps were incomplete, and the authors completed and edited them. After editing the required maps, a new output was obtained, which was considered the final urban development map of Kermanshah metropolis.This article is trying to explain and use the integration of physical, social and natural components by using quantitative models and also considering the necessary indexing (fundamental studies). Also, solutions that can be implemented (operational methods) have been considered. In this article, purposes such as providing the zoning of vulnerability and the risk map for facilitating the identification of the critical regions of the Kermanshah metropolis, etc., according to the data and results of this research and determining the favorite directions for the physical-spatial development of the Kermanshah metropolis in the future with consideration of the earthquake risk zone and compliance with Passive defense considerations are followed. The results of the research and the favorite directions for the physical-spatial development of Kermanshah metropolis in the future, taking into account the earthquake risk zone, are followed. This process is displayed in the TOPSIS model by using the opinions of the respondents and the physical and spatial development of the city. According to the principles of Passive defense and research objectives, the research method has become operational. The article is practical in terms of its purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its application. To conduct this research, 4 economic, social, physical and natural components were chosen, along with their indicators.

The process of periodical development can be defined as the physical expansion of settlements (both urban and rural) that are registered in approved urban development plans or managed under the political-administrative rule of a specific organization, such as the municipality, at different historical periods. Also, from the digitization of aerial and satellite images, etc., by identifying the trends and mentioning the time of physical expansion, their authority depends on the continuous growth (interlacing or joining) of each period of time in a circular or sectional manner to the period before it (none from special exceptions, such as municipal management of a specific town in its immediate territory). Considering the map of the physical development of the metropolis of Kermanshah, it can be acknowledged in the historical ages that the periodic development process of Kermanshah was intertwined with the urban defense system, and in a way, the physical growth of Kermanshah was also a product of the defense factor. Also, the cause of the imposed war and the migration of provincial war veterans, etc., have been among the factors in this unbridled growth. This unbridled population pressure is so evident that the informal settlements and the injection of residential settlements outside the pre-planned development plans have broken the scope of the plan, and these factors, together with economic poverty and a lack of strict monitoring, have made many of the topics of meaningful Vulnerability according to the 45 components and indicators to such an extent that a meaningful relationship between the socio-economic base, like many of Iran's cities have a physical-spatial structure, gave the City a shape in the form of a socio-economic base. The socio-economic base, special neighborhoods and areas were chosen for settlement and the horizontal and scattered development of the City due to these separations spread beyond the original borders (before 1330) and areas 7 and 5 are near and along the mountain. Taq Bostan, and regions 8 and 4 in the heights and Mahor hills of Koh Sefid and regions 3, 2, 6 and 1 in the Kermanshah plain and parallel to the river continued to expand. Undoubtedly, this process of physical development and growth is inevitable in opposition to the scattered fault lines on the surface. The City is located, and it should be considered and paid attention by city managers by creating multipurpose uses and increasing open and green spaces per capita, preventing desertification, emphasizing strengthening, etc., the balanced and horizontal growth of the City in development plans. In the present article, with basic studies and theoretical foundations related to the subject and the study area, the required database in the ArcGIS software environment was formed, and then the vulnerability of the areas was assessed according to the conditions of the study area. Finally, the vulnerability of Kermanshah metropolis according to the principles of Passive defense and quantitative and qualitative criteria using ArcGIS software and the TOPSIS model in the form of a vulnerable zone map and the periodic development of the City and City development directions based on the location of Passive defense.

Cities are moving towards becoming networked and systemic, and the systemic approach is manifested in the system of cities, which contains all the localities and regions of the urban system. Therefore, we should not forget that threats are a living and serious element that has always existed in all human activities and man-made infrastructures. What is taken from the article as results is certain: this is that the distinction between the base and the socio-economic position in the analysis of urban vulnerability has shown its real expression in the more vulnerable zones 5, 7 and 6 and the zones 8, 4, 1, 2 and 3 with less vulnerability, which have emerged from the heart of the metropolis of Kermanshah. Because informal settlements, hieratical, inefficient and worn-out urban neighborhoods are generally located in areas with high Vulnerability (except for the historical context of the City on the border of zones 8, 4, 3 and 2), skeletal, resistant, open-space buildings, etc. are located in areas with less vulnerability. In conclusion, what is evident is that the circular growth and development of the City until 1330 and after that, the linear growth of the City from Sarab Taq Bostan in the northern side to Sarab Qanbar in the southern side was dominant until 1350, and the City, from this date until now, has spread all over and the physical growth of the City has dominated on the western and eastern sides of the City by the construction of industrial towns and the creation of residential areas in these sides with the aim of development programs and helping development and construction. The aspects of physical-spatial development will face problems practically in some regions. This requires concentration and attention to the various faults in the north and south of the city, along with the Qarasu river, which apply principles and considerations of Passive defense in urban development, increasing per capita green uses, relief, etc., using resistant materials, preventing desertification, and creating new multipurpose uses.