The Future Study of Government Funding in the Healthcare Supply Chain: A Scenario Analysis Approach

Health financing is very important and means providing money, budget or necessary resources for it. Considering the vital role of the government in financing health, in this research, the drivers of financing were identified by the government and possible futures were investigated.

The present qualitative study was developed in 4 phases. Judgmental and snowball sampling methods were applied in all stages. In the first stage, based on theoretical saturation, 15 people and in other stages, 12 experts participated. In the first phase, financing drivers were identified through interviews and thematic analysis. In the second phase, using the researcher-made questionnaire and Micmac 6.1.2 software, the main drivers were extracted. In the third phase, the uncertainty of each of the key drivers was determined by an interactive management approach, and finally, in the fourth phase, compatible scenarios were determined using a researcher-made questionnaire and its analysis with the Scenariowizard 4.3.1 software.

In this research, 14 factors influencing the government funding of the healthcare sector were identified. Moreover, 5 compatible scenarios for financing were obtained. In the "wealthy government" scenario, the financing conditions were favorable by the government, but in the scenarios of "calm inefficient", "inefficient without a plan", "inefficient unstable" and "bankrupt government", the government had many problems and the health sector should focus on other financing methods.

Due to the lack of favorability of most scenarios, it is necessary for healthcare managers to reduce dependence on the government budget and promote financing from other methods. Methods such as financing through the provision of services, charitable donations and insurances, and the stock market should be given serious consideration.