Analyzing land surface temperature (LST) changes in the protected area network and focal species in Yazd Province

Forecasting changes in the environment has now become one of the important branches of environmental studies. One of these predictions is to investigate the possible effects of temperature changes on plant and animal species. In this research, the aim is used the land surface temperature (LST) of the MODIS satellite, separately for spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons, to investigate the changes in the average LST in the protected areas and the habitat of focal species. Focal species of the province include Panthra pardus, Acinonyx jubatus, Capra aegagrus, Ovis orientalis, Gazella subgutturosa and Gazella bennettii. In a field study, the presence points were collected between 1399 and 1402 from all over the province and protected areas, and the seasonal average of LST from 2003 to 2033 was prepared using MODIS satellite products (MYD11A1) in the Google Earth Engine system. Species habitat was modeled by using SDMs and combining regression models and machine learning. Also, the TSS threshold was used to convert the habitat desirability probability map into a binary map. Man-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test was used to analyze the trend of increasing and decreasing temperature changes at a significance level of 95%. The findings show that the decreasing changes in the earth's surface temperature have occurred in a scattered and non-continuous manner on the surface, but the increasing temperature changes are associated with more spatial continuity. The highest decrease in temperature occurred in the spring season with 15,212.69 hectares in the Iranian deer habitat, while there was no decrease in temperature in the winter season. Protected areas have experienced the least increasing and decreasing LST trends in spring.