Identifying drivers for rural tourism development in Guilan province with futures research

The current research, with a future-research approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the state of rural tourism in Gilan province and examines the extent and how these factors influence each other. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Based on this, in the first step, the influential indicators and components in this field were collected in different dimensions (socio-cultural, economic, planning and management, infrastructural and service, and natural factors). After collecting the data and identifying the primary variables in the framework of the Delphi model, 40 questionnaires were distributed exclusively among the executive and academic elites of Gilan province (statistical research community), who had sufficient expertise and experience in tourism issues. The results of the research indicate that the selected factors have influenced each other in more than 92% of cases. And based on the quantitative results of experts, the situation of rural tourism in Gilan province is somewhat unstable and the current conditions governing the rural tourism system will change drastically in the near future.