Identifying and analyzing the key drivers affecting the prosperity of Yazd city with a Futures Studies approach

Nowadays, due to the increasing growth of urbanization, especially in developing countries, the innovation of urban prosperity is one of the key human development issues facing the world. Prosperity is a broad concept that is related to balanced and harmonious development in an environment with fairness and justice.

This research has practical-developmental goals and its nature and method is analytical-exploratory. In the theoretical part of this research, the required data and information have been collected using the library method, and in the field part, the required data has been obtained using a questionnaire based on the Delphi technique. In this research, our statistical population includes specialists and experts of Yazd city, and 30 people were selected as a sample from the statistical population by using the targeted non-probability sampling method. Then, using the Delphi method and completing the questionnaire by experts, 43 primary variables were identified. In the next step, the matrix of cross effects was designed to measure the influence of the variables on each other and was provided to the experts for scoring. The results were analyzed using the structural analysis technique and MICMAC software, and finally, from a total of 43 primary influencing variables, 10 factors were identified as the key driving factors affecting the urban prosperity of Yazd.

:Findings shows that the most influence among the five dimensions is related to 1- Justice and non-discrimination with 28.93%, 2- Quality of life 21.23%, 3- 18.71%.Also, the most dependent among the five dimensions is related to 1- Justice and non-discrimination with 29.24%, 2- quality of life 23.58%, 3- productivity17.40%.

The Conclusion show that among the key drivers affecting the future prosperity of the city of Yazd are the variables, the area of worn-out fabric (372), access to water resources (372), youth unemployment (352), poverty rate (348), Participation of people in government (338), average income (331), the percentage of marginalized households (331), the percentage of women's employment (321), and the ratio of employment to population (310), Savings rate (307) have had the most impact. The conclusion shows that the urban development system in Yazd city is unstable and the lack of influencing variables threatens the stability of the system.