Analysis of Physical-Functional Factors Affecting the Potential for Theft (Baharan Neighborhood of Mashhad)

Today, due to rapid population growth, increased activities, and the abundance of vehicles, ensuring the peace and security of citizens has become a difficult, time-consuming, and costly task. Security is a complex issue with social, economic, and cultural dimensions, and it is considered one of the main components of quality in urban spaces. Furthermore, the physical components should not be overlooked, as they play a significant role in this matter.

This study aims to analyze the physical and functional factors that influence the potential for theft in the Baharan neighborhood of Mashhad. The research method used is applied, quantitative, and descriptive-analytical. GIS and SPSS software were employed to analyze the data. The study utilized the insights of 11 experts to identify the physical and functional factors affecting the potential for crime. This was done through library studies and the use of the Delphi questionnaire.

The results indicate that there are 9 factors that have an impact on the occurrence of crime: lighting, visual access, public transportation, land use, vegetation, physical form, access (passages), density and compactness of the area, and urban block size.

Considering the methodology of the nine-component analysis, hotspots with a high potential for crime have been identified at the neighborhood level in Baharan. Using spatial analysis, the components of lighting (with an average rank of 7.13), visual access (6.45), public transportation (5.22), and land use (5.04) were found to have the greatest impact on the potential for crime in this area. Based on this, Janbaz, Sajedi, and Tous Streets have been identified as vulnerable areas in terms of theft occurrence. Proposed measures to reduce crime include increasing pedestrian pathway lighting, activating large-scale vacant lots, controlling motorcycle access, and implementing suitable tree pruning for improved surveillance of the neighborhood.