Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Fluctuations of Total Factor Productivity of Rainfed Wheat Production in Important Producing Provinces in Iran

This study was conducted to investigate the effective components in the fluctuations of the total factor productivity of rainfed wheat production with emphasizing the role of climate change in the important provinces that produce rainfed wheat in Iran.

For this purpose, a True Random Parameter Stochastic Production Frontier (TRP-SPF) Model was estimated using panel data and the obtained coefficients were used for calculating the proposed productivity index .

The results of estimation of True Random Parameter Stochastic Production Frontier (TRP-SPF) Model show that the variables of seed, pesticides, labor force, cultivated area, technological progress, square of air temperature, effective rainfall and square of effective rainfall have a significant and positive effect on the production of rainfed wheat while the air temperature has a negative and significant effect on the production of rainfed wheat. The results of calculating CATFP index of rainfed wheat show the existence of fluctuations in it. The analysis of the contribution of factors affecting changing the CATFP index showed that this index is mainly influenced by technological changes and then climate changes. After that, scale efficiency and technical efficiency are in the third and fourth places of influencing the CATFP index.