Uncertainty of government expenditure policy and economic activity in Iran

The present study examines the quantitative effects of uncertainty regarding government expenditure policy (current and construction expenditures) on Iran's economic activity. Uncertainty is a situation where future events or their probability of occurrence are not predicted. In the real world, the economy is full of uncertainty of economic factors, which leads to risk and danger in the decision-making space of economic factors and affects their behavior. In this article, we intend to use the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR), which are known as impulse models; Uncertainty effects created by the government's current expenditures and construction expenditures and other effective indicators such as; Measure the impact of oil prices and financial crises on economic activities such as production and employment. The data of the study was collected from the Central Bank website and the model was estimated using Eviuse software for the years 1365-1399. The findings showed that an impulse from the oil price area causes a 5% increase in production and a 1% increase in employment, also an impulse from the financial crisis area causes a 3% decrease in production and a 12% decrease in employment, respectively. The impulse from the area of uncertainty of current and construction expenses, causes a decrease in order; 12 percent is produced and 7 and 5 percent is employed.