Survey of structural changes in population and need for land and housing with possible fertility approaches on the horizon of 1410 Iran

Population is the foundation of any development planning. In fact, population and its developments are most important variable that considered the basis of computing in development planning. Housing planning as one of the most important economic sectors of society is always affected by demographic changes. Thus, the aim of the present study is to predict the population and household, as well as the housing and land required in Iran up to the horizon of 1410. The research method is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information used of Censuses of different periods, information of health centers and other related centers as well as environmental scanning techniques. In order to predict the population of Iran in the horizon of 1410, the population of the provinces of Iran has been predicted separately. Environmental scanning technique has been used to predict the factors affecting population and housing and Spectrum software has been used to predict the population. Then, by considering the factors affecting the need for housing, the required housing is predicted and from facade group method to predict the required land have been used. The results show that with three assumptions of increase, stability and decrease in fertility in the horizon of 1410, we will see an increase in the population of Iran to 93.6, 91.5 and 89.4 million, respectively, decrease in people aged 0-14 and an increase in the elderly over 65 years. According to the projected population, we will see an increase of 33.8, 33.1 and 32.3 million households, respectively, In order to meet the needs of all households for adequate and standard housing, we will need 21.6, 21 and 20.5 million housing, respectively and about 99,000 to 105,000 hectares of land will be needed to provide this number of houses.