The Future Scenarios of Relations Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Sadr Iraq

The research aims to understand the factors influencing the fluctuating relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the influential Shiite Sadr movement in Iraq. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal layers of fluctuations in relations from 2003 to 2022 and to examine the future scenarios of the relationship between the parties. Also, one of the subsidiary goals of this article is to fill the research gap in this field. The method discussed in this article is the "layered analysis of causes" or the " layered causal" method by Soheil Enayatollah. Information was collected through library research, documents, and interviews with experts and analysts in Iraq. Based on the findings of the research, the main challenges and divisions of the Sadr-Iran movement include the historical background of the Arab-Ajam conflict in Iraq, the Pan-Arabic tendencies of the Sadr movement, Iran's support for Muqtada al-Sadr's rivals in Iraq's political arena, and divisions among Jaish al-Mahdi commanders. One of the destructive effects of some Arab countries in the region is their negative impact on neighboring countries and beyond. According to the findings of this study, the intensification and emphasis of the Sadr on the Pan-Arabic discourse and Arab nationalism, the emphasis on the Shiite-Arab authority over the Persian authority in Iraq, as well as the continued public support of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the political rivals of this process in the complex field. Iraq's political turmoil may result in a deterioration of relations between Iran and Sadr. On the contrary, with Sadr and Iran's focus on convergent issues such as shared history, shared fate, numerous religious commonalities, and the mediation of the Islamic Republic of Iran to resolve differences between Iraqi Shiite parties and groups, the Sadr movement will certainly be effective in enhancing and strengthening relations.